All writing
Research, trading notes, and the practice of building. Each piece is provisionally true when published, and always open to revision by new facts.
At Jinwa’s wedding in Jinzhou, one simple line—“being with this person feels comfortable”—opened into reflections on lasting relationships, crypto’s volatility, online friends met offline, and the quiet hope of meeting again.
If so-called “borderline” content breaks no law, platform rule, or explicit agreement, it remains inside the line. The deeper danger is the shadow boundary that public pressure keeps drawing inside the real one.
Some people drift out of our lives for years, only to reappear far from home. Others live nearby and are never seen again. A reflection on fate, friendship, endings, and the relationships that endure without daily contact.
Could America sacrifice USDT or USDC to escape part of its debt? The idea confuses issuer risk, policy risk, and sovereign-credit risk—and misses what stablecoins are actually doing for the dollar.
I read the direction of this crypto rally correctly, but failed to shift my positioning from range-bound caution to trend-mode risk. A post-mortem on sizing, confirmation, false breakouts, and option convexity.
An ordinary day acquires weight at goodbye. Reposting Hatter’s Moment here preserves a small record of four friends—and of the uncertain promise contained in “see you next time.”
On August 14, 2026, a place in Huishan Ancient Town for writing to the future prompted me to leave a year’s worth of questions—for my work, investments, health, relationships, and the life I cannot yet predict.
Money can buy options; health is what makes every option exercisable. Sleep, movement, care, and recovery are investments in the one principal that cannot be rebuilt.
AI can be a real technological revolution and still produce a bubble. Once OpenAI and Anthropic face public-market scrutiny, even strong growth may not justify the capital required—and disappointment could reverse the entire AI spending chain.
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