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Could America sacrifice USDT or USDC to escape part of its debt? The idea confuses issuer risk, policy risk, and sovereign-credit risk—and misses what stablecoins are actually doing for the dollar.
I read the direction of this crypto rally correctly, but failed to shift my positioning from range-bound caution to trend-mode risk. A post-mortem on sizing, confirmation, false breakouts, and option convexity.
AI can be a real technological revolution and still produce a bubble. Once OpenAI and Anthropic face public-market scrutiny, even strong growth may not justify the capital required—and disappointment could reverse the entire AI spending chain.
The model companies may define the future, but the suppliers of chips, power, cooling, and materials may offer the more durable investment opportunity.
AI will transform production, but human needs, taste, trust, habits, and emotion evolve far more slowly—making reasonably valued consumer businesses a compelling defensive allocation.
A conversation through the writing
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