When Past Success Traps the Future
Success builds capability, but it also creates switching costs. What companies and investors must preserve is not yesterday’s answer, but the ability to remeasure their boundaries when the facts change.
All writing
Research, trading notes, and the practice of building. Each piece is provisionally true when published, and always open to revision by new facts.
Success builds capability, but it also creates switching costs. What companies and investors must preserve is not yesterday’s answer, but the ability to remeasure their boundaries when the facts change.
A spontaneous trip to Moganshan becomes a meditation on a multi-base investor’s life, the choices money can buy, and the moments no plane ticket can recover.
Sustainable humanitarianism must distinguish refugees, asylum seekers, and economic migrants—and honestly reckon with the costs to borders, safety, public finances, integration, and social trust.
The model companies may define the future, but the suppliers of chips, power, cooling, and materials may offer the more durable investment opportunity.
When the tools of an age have changed, who draws the boundary of “cheating,” and in whose interest is it drawn?
At twenty-one, freedom no longer means a life without pressure. It means taking responsibility for a path of my own—and continuing to bet on myself.
AI will transform production, but human needs, taste, trust, habits, and emotion evolve far more slowly—making reasonably valued consumer businesses a compelling defensive allocation.
Trend following and value investing may look like opposites, but both rest on the same ability: doing nothing without an edge, then acting decisively when the right opportunity arrives.
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